* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 65 67 65 65 60 52 41 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 65 67 65 65 60 52 41 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 66 67 66 61 52 41 31 24 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 12 9 2 5 1 3 6 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 1 2 1 4 4 4 1 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 111 77 80 95 93 61 84 101 106 127 137 178 206 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.0 24.8 22.8 21.3 21.2 20.8 20.5 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 151 148 146 134 111 90 75 74 70 67 66 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 10 8 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 71 71 67 68 63 61 61 57 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 7 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 52 67 70 42 13 4 -1 -7 -17 -9 12 200 MB DIV 71 62 73 95 48 31 -4 -20 4 12 -12 -16 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -7 -2 -7 -19 -8 -8 0 3 6 6 LAND (KM) 129 102 91 51 50 179 127 133 224 402 627 797 983 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.7 21.9 22.7 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.8 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.8 104.4 105.1 105.7 107.4 109.4 111.4 113.5 115.8 118.2 120.7 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 17 12 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 0. -6. -11. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 5. 5. 0. -8. -19. -30. -41. -48. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)