* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 75 75 73 66 56 44 33 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 75 75 73 66 56 44 33 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 76 76 71 63 51 40 30 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 11 9 11 8 5 1 3 3 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 2 1 1 -2 -1 4 4 0 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 55 100 106 99 74 88 105 116 130 60 111 145 249 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.3 24.3 22.5 21.2 20.7 20.4 19.9 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 146 142 126 106 87 73 68 65 60 60 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 74 72 70 66 63 62 58 58 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 63 63 46 39 9 15 -1 -7 -27 4 2 200 MB DIV 66 88 82 31 27 24 -17 3 -7 0 0 -3 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -3 0 -7 -7 -8 -2 -2 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 122 122 108 98 116 253 122 179 236 360 499 639 802 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.8 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.0 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.1 105.8 106.4 108.1 109.9 111.8 113.7 115.6 117.8 119.8 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 16 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -8. -16. -22. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -4. -14. -26. -37. -47. -55. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)