* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 23 22 23 15 15 20 19 22 15 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -5 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 109 102 89 89 89 87 93 106 91 87 95 97 98 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 127 127 125 124 123 120 116 111 104 97 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 51 54 54 56 61 66 65 64 59 55 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 58 34 30 30 34 27 21 -2 -10 -15 -8 -7 0 200 MB DIV 44 39 44 13 5 24 12 17 9 5 -3 5 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 731 735 740 753 765 771 788 773 735 721 731 748 771 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.2 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.9 115.6 116.5 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -11. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)