* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 70 69 65 57 45 33 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 70 69 65 57 45 33 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 72 70 64 55 44 33 24 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 5 4 9 7 1 3 4 7 6 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 7 0 -1 2 2 4 -1 0 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 79 88 125 41 41 94 86 80 59 99 147 184 215 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 25.2 23.3 21.9 20.6 20.3 20.0 19.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 141 135 115 95 80 67 64 60 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 77 76 73 72 67 65 65 63 60 57 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 62 61 45 34 23 17 17 4 -7 -6 4 16 200 MB DIV 56 85 35 15 34 19 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 3 -6 700-850 TADV -10 -9 0 -1 -8 -13 -12 -8 -3 0 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 137 117 117 140 172 200 120 213 251 384 467 612 767 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.0 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.3 105.9 106.6 107.3 109.1 110.9 112.6 114.4 116.4 118.5 120.3 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 14 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -12. -21. -27. -32. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -13. -25. -37. -50. -59. -67. -74. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)