* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 22 20 19 23 26 23 20 17 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -4 -2 1 2 0 1 0 -1 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 99 92 91 94 94 83 103 93 75 64 68 76 N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 129 131 131 130 126 123 117 112 105 101 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 58 61 64 70 70 64 60 61 58 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 32 30 19 6 -7 -14 -15 -6 -1 10 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 27 12 16 19 18 8 7 24 -13 0 -11 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 755 748 741 725 709 674 618 589 578 615 655 712 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.2 113.1 112.9 112.6 112.5 112.6 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.5 116.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -31. -34. -34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/07/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)