* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 71 70 65 55 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 71 70 65 55 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 70 69 67 60 49 38 28 21 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 4 8 8 11 6 4 5 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 0 -1 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 78 54 47 52 71 85 116 145 109 123 126 183 196 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.2 24.3 22.7 21.1 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 134 125 105 89 72 63 62 60 60 60 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 72 70 71 70 67 63 63 57 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 56 43 33 37 17 18 4 -1 -6 -1 0 18 200 MB DIV 70 39 25 38 46 18 19 -8 23 -7 -1 -4 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -1 -4 -8 -5 -6 -3 -1 2 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 112 124 148 187 261 133 177 227 332 416 534 672 832 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.7 22.4 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.5 108.2 109.9 111.7 113.7 115.5 117.3 119.1 120.8 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -26. -32. -36. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -15. -29. -42. -54. -63. -71. -76. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)