* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 21 14 16 19 23 23 20 18 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -5 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 92 92 92 93 85 95 96 87 82 78 71 68 N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 132 132 128 125 120 114 110 106 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 64 66 70 73 72 69 65 63 57 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 27 21 8 3 -9 -7 -7 5 7 16 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 19 34 43 25 16 23 6 10 -2 14 -8 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 746 747 748 727 705 639 574 529 504 538 591 637 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 112.9 112.8 112.7 112.5 112.4 112.3 112.6 113.1 113.9 114.8 115.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -33. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/07/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)