* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 60 51 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 60 51 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 61 59 55 47 37 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 5 1 9 12 12 9 8 7 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 18 17 354 354 86 120 131 145 148 143 177 165 216 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.3 22.6 20.5 19.8 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 131 124 115 105 88 66 60 60 59 58 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 68 68 68 66 62 60 55 54 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 34 17 13 20 8 1 -2 7 9 33 25 200 MB DIV 16 12 37 18 1 18 17 12 -14 0 8 1 3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -9 -8 -8 -4 0 1 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 147 199 272 200 111 126 165 305 377 452 537 629 749 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.6 25.1 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.1 109.9 111.5 113.6 115.5 117.3 118.5 119.4 120.5 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -15. -25. -33. -37. -41. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -14. -28. -45. -58. -68. -75. -79. -83. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)