* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 45 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 45 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 41 37 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 6 12 12 8 8 4 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 348 4 14 77 148 120 142 160 135 162 129 141 182 SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.4 21.5 20.1 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 115 106 96 77 61 60 59 59 59 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 70 69 68 67 61 62 58 54 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 20 16 17 22 11 1 7 8 29 33 38 200 MB DIV 4 32 15 4 10 46 32 13 -13 11 0 -1 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -12 -6 -8 -5 -1 0 0 3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 213 281 230 144 113 181 245 318 364 462 586 719 878 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.4 109.1 110.0 110.8 112.7 114.6 116.2 117.5 118.8 120.0 121.4 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -15. -22. -29. -32. -34. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -13. -23. -41. -55. -67. -76. -81. -84. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)