* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 47 54 60 62 66 68 69 69 71 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 47 54 60 62 66 67 46 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 53 59 64 68 69 48 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 8 6 16 18 25 19 24 21 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 6 4 4 0 2 0 3 2 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 101 289 315 329 289 309 293 293 273 282 269 290 276 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 139 143 145 146 146 152 149 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 152 151 151 155 154 151 146 147 138 131 130 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 59 61 57 56 59 59 61 67 65 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 57 49 46 53 46 24 26 4 13 -27 -50 -65 -35 200 MB DIV -10 -17 0 15 27 7 29 30 65 60 23 26 32 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -2 -1 5 1 5 9 7 -3 0 5 3 LAND (KM) 849 735 657 631 567 281 363 223 72 60 -34 61 136 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 14 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 29 39 28 46 36 18 26 25 33 51 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)