* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 42 39 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 42 39 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 40 37 34 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 6 7 7 12 9 10 9 13 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 12 24 58 144 114 116 138 133 147 163 147 171 161 SST (C) 26.1 25.1 24.3 23.4 22.7 21.0 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.8 19.4 19.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 114 105 96 89 71 60 59 59 59 59 60 59 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 67 65 69 64 62 58 56 47 37 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 15 7 13 17 3 1 -4 6 1 24 26 31 200 MB DIV 15 6 6 3 12 21 23 -8 12 9 -1 1 -12 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -6 -13 -11 -4 -1 0 2 1 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 281 226 155 136 177 191 286 330 383 431 535 655 765 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.4 23.4 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 110.0 110.9 111.7 113.4 115.1 116.4 117.4 118.5 119.8 121.3 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -31. -33. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -17. -29. -43. -55. -64. -71. -77. -81. -84. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)