* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 45 53 59 63 66 67 70 71 73 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 45 53 59 63 65 48 51 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 40 42 47 52 57 59 46 46 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 8 13 17 18 19 26 21 25 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 2 1 2 1 4 4 4 5 2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 316 313 343 306 295 316 289 278 273 257 267 265 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 138 139 140 146 145 147 152 149 141 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 151 153 153 156 153 151 148 138 127 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 60 58 61 59 55 52 52 54 61 59 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 48 46 33 23 10 12 -12 -33 -78 -73 -37 200 MB DIV -16 -9 12 17 19 29 39 73 53 69 20 42 51 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -4 0 7 7 5 7 1 -2 13 7 12 LAND (KM) 730 649 619 584 379 433 206 30 88 -40 136 250 188 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 14.6 16.1 17.4 19.0 20.7 22.8 24.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 50.8 53.1 55.6 58.1 62.7 67.3 71.6 75.1 76.8 76.8 77.4 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 24 26 25 24 23 20 15 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 35 20 38 33 35 19 11 35 63 24 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 35. 36. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)