* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 61 63 62 61 57 60 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 61 61 57 50 46 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 48 51 56 60 53 57 49 47 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 17 19 17 26 25 31 28 28 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 1 0 0 4 1 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 318 327 292 300 312 284 275 268 283 271 291 286 300 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 139 141 144 143 142 148 142 139 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 149 151 152 151 146 140 141 131 126 121 115 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 58 56 53 56 55 58 60 60 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 40 28 22 15 -7 -4 -35 -56 -103 -71 -55 200 MB DIV -11 8 17 16 18 43 31 73 69 31 21 30 52 700-850 TADV -5 -5 1 6 2 6 19 3 8 3 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 651 629 612 442 337 345 157 2 47 22 200 313 259 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 15.3 16.7 18.1 19.6 21.3 23.3 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.9 55.1 57.5 59.8 64.3 68.5 71.9 74.5 76.0 76.5 77.1 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 24 24 24 22 19 16 13 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 18 30 31 33 25 21 16 33 15 20 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 21. 23. 22. 21. 17. 20. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)