* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 30 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 7 10 12 12 13 11 17 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 1 2 1 0 3 3 1 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 44 117 112 116 114 121 148 150 157 154 175 154 164 SST (C) 24.9 24.1 23.1 22.0 21.1 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 104 93 82 72 60 61 62 63 63 62 60 59 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 61 64 63 62 56 53 44 39 32 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 5 6 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 17 24 15 7 2 -8 11 8 25 19 20 23 200 MB DIV 0 6 27 14 16 9 -15 13 -1 -8 -3 -20 0 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -14 -11 -10 -4 1 2 0 2 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 126 67 88 101 83 207 278 334 378 437 503 593 641 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.4 25.3 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.5 111.3 112.2 113.0 114.9 116.7 117.7 118.0 118.8 119.5 120.6 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 2 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -16. -21. -25. -26. -26. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -30. -41. -52. -61. -68. -72. -75. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)