* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 57 60 62 62 63 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 57 60 51 51 51 51 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 48 51 55 57 43 43 47 47 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 15 16 17 21 16 25 20 29 18 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 4 2 8 6 7 0 1 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 318 302 298 316 299 281 257 277 275 279 268 271 274 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 141 144 143 141 145 146 140 140 135 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 149 152 154 148 141 140 137 128 125 117 110 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 13 12 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 55 53 52 54 51 56 55 59 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 12 10 10 9 7 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 27 19 12 2 8 -18 -39 -70 -70 -50 -34 200 MB DIV 10 24 32 26 43 44 59 57 68 2 42 40 32 700-850 TADV -5 -3 2 5 7 3 17 7 1 2 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 646 637 465 356 420 209 65 20 6 119 263 240 173 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 16.1 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.4 24.3 25.7 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 55.1 57.3 59.6 61.9 66.2 70.0 73.0 75.0 76.4 77.1 77.8 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 24 23 21 18 14 12 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 29 31 31 39 21 23 19 6 19 23 26 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. 24. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)