* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 9 10 15 11 13 11 11 6 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 121 109 128 105 120 144 154 161 140 164 172 176 172 SST (C) 24.1 23.1 22.1 21.1 20.5 19.9 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.3 20.0 19.7 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 103 93 83 72 65 60 64 63 63 61 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 64 64 64 60 56 48 38 35 28 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 18 8 9 2 5 6 20 19 30 29 28 200 MB DIV 9 20 7 -10 8 0 -9 19 -6 17 -7 2 -5 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -11 -10 -3 1 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 84 107 114 106 155 239 317 348 387 425 490 608 572 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.2 25.5 25.8 25.8 26.2 26.4 27.0 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.3 112.1 113.0 113.8 115.3 116.9 117.7 118.2 118.9 119.7 121.1 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 3 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -7. -14. -19. -24. -28. -28. -28. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -35. -46. -56. -65. -70. -73. -75. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)