* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 54 57 61 60 61 62 67 69 72 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 54 57 61 47 48 49 53 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 40 44 44 45 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 18 18 16 18 17 16 30 23 18 15 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 5 3 8 12 0 7 0 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 296 298 312 302 283 271 251 276 278 279 273 301 337 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 144 144 143 140 145 141 138 137 134 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 149 154 151 145 137 138 130 124 121 116 109 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 11 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 51 51 53 53 55 56 56 59 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 20 14 9 12 0 0 -32 -53 -83 -54 -49 -24 200 MB DIV 15 36 29 40 50 62 78 37 52 32 33 46 10 700-850 TADV -2 1 6 10 12 19 20 26 16 15 9 7 3 LAND (KM) 628 474 361 404 383 147 4 12 84 206 331 277 178 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.8 18.3 19.9 21.6 23.2 24.8 26.0 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 57.2 59.3 61.6 63.8 67.8 70.9 73.4 75.1 76.2 76.7 77.4 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 23 23 22 19 15 13 10 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 28 37 25 19 4 22 13 17 19 20 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 15. 16. 17. 22. 24. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)