* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 10 13 12 14 14 15 17 19 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 4 3 3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 111 128 104 109 118 137 140 170 190 208 194 196 N/A SST (C) 23.2 22.2 21.3 20.6 20.0 19.9 20.3 20.3 20.1 19.7 19.5 20.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 84 74 66 60 59 62 62 61 60 58 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 63 62 62 56 52 40 31 27 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 7 9 6 2 7 4 23 29 29 24 N/A 200 MB DIV 14 12 -6 -4 6 -7 9 8 -5 1 -14 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -2 -5 -7 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 104 111 83 133 209 238 293 363 462 620 661 816 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.6 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.7 26.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.9 116.8 118.2 119.4 121.2 122.2 123.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 6 7 7 4 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -5. -8. -15. -19. -23. -27. -26. -26. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -22. -34. -45. -56. -64. -69. -72. -74. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/09/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)