* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 52 52 55 58 61 65 68 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 42 42 44 47 51 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 51 52 37 39 38 38 41 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 23 25 18 25 25 27 12 14 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 0 0 11 9 2 0 1 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 294 309 301 291 286 257 263 265 281 258 278 264 332 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 144 143 140 144 141 136 136 132 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 153 151 148 140 139 130 123 120 114 108 103 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 54 54 55 54 57 54 59 64 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 10 10 10 7 6 8 9 10 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 7 10 0 3 -31 -56 -93 -73 -50 -28 -45 200 MB DIV 24 30 46 51 47 79 63 46 9 26 32 36 5 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 3 1 5 17 18 5 16 7 8 0 LAND (KM) 465 358 419 364 211 39 0 115 251 353 326 267 243 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 18.0 19.9 21.6 23.3 24.8 26.1 27.1 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 59.6 61.8 64.0 66.1 69.7 72.7 74.5 75.5 76.3 76.9 77.4 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 22 21 18 14 11 9 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 37 24 18 19 6 14 10 15 12 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 7. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)