* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 13 15 15 11 14 14 18 22 25 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 3 4 4 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 128 97 110 114 142 150 160 192 215 219 216 209 N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.2 20.5 19.9 19.7 20.2 20.3 19.9 19.8 19.9 19.8 20.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 73 66 60 60 62 63 60 60 60 59 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 62 64 59 55 46 34 27 23 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 6 9 9 4 7 29 30 37 33 19 N/A 200 MB DIV 23 -3 8 1 0 0 20 7 1 -4 -4 -12 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -5 -4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A LAND (KM) 107 91 141 203 211 274 371 492 651 798 839 970 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.4 28.1 27.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.5 115.3 116.9 118.3 119.8 121.5 123.6 124.8 125.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 8 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -18. -21. -24. -23. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -37. -48. -57. -65. -69. -73. -75. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/09/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)