* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 49 51 48 49 48 51 53 56 56 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 49 38 39 39 38 41 43 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 47 37 38 36 34 34 37 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 20 23 22 24 29 27 23 19 18 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 5 13 3 5 0 -5 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 309 304 281 284 274 248 270 270 290 299 312 303 334 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 143 141 140 143 137 136 133 129 122 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 150 148 143 136 133 124 121 116 111 104 100 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 53 54 52 56 59 55 61 64 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 9 9 10 10 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 11 -1 -2 -12 -53 -69 -101 -45 -26 -28 -75 200 MB DIV 23 33 34 35 42 72 59 21 40 23 16 -9 -20 700-850 TADV 8 0 4 4 11 -3 27 -6 0 0 5 2 -3 LAND (KM) 352 444 310 168 91 -55 117 195 336 368 297 258 190 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.3 19.3 21.1 22.7 24.4 25.9 27.2 28.2 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.5 64.6 66.6 68.5 71.6 73.7 75.1 75.9 76.5 77.1 77.8 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 25 22 21 21 19 16 12 10 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 17 19 19 60 10 12 13 11 14 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 3. 4. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)