* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 62 61 58 56 54 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 62 48 45 42 41 40 42 43 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 63 48 45 41 38 38 39 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 24 23 35 32 33 25 25 12 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 4 7 6 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 302 280 271 265 256 264 276 293 297 305 315 340 349 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 141 139 142 138 135 135 133 129 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 148 145 141 138 136 127 121 118 114 109 107 105 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 55 56 58 60 59 64 64 64 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 0 -7 0 -34 -71 -110 -94 -60 -52 -63 -50 200 MB DIV 32 34 35 55 72 62 52 5 40 34 29 -7 1 700-850 TADV 8 9 13 20 9 14 9 -3 12 1 -1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 455 297 168 108 26 24 171 288 368 348 330 267 195 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 20.1 22.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 64.7 66.6 68.2 69.8 72.5 74.1 75.3 76.2 76.7 76.8 77.4 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 23 20 19 17 17 14 11 9 6 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 17 20 19 15 30 15 11 14 12 12 15 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)