* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 55 53 53 51 55 57 59 61 64 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 46 44 47 45 49 51 53 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 51 50 42 43 42 42 44 48 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 23 23 29 32 26 25 18 21 19 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 7 9 0 2 0 -4 -2 -1 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 295 285 274 278 261 281 268 292 266 270 250 275 273 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 142 148 140 141 133 124 123 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 146 145 143 141 141 129 128 117 105 106 105 103 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 58 55 60 63 61 66 66 66 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 9 11 8 8 6 8 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 3 14 3 -30 -44 -80 -16 -25 -14 -36 -17 200 MB DIV 49 40 65 95 85 61 36 33 35 43 29 11 21 700-850 TADV 5 14 18 6 0 9 4 13 9 3 0 1 13 LAND (KM) 333 239 189 101 -4 -19 120 263 216 130 98 102 64 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 20.3 22.2 24.3 26.1 27.2 27.4 29.1 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 67.0 68.8 70.5 72.1 74.8 76.0 77.1 78.0 78.8 79.2 79.8 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 18 18 17 13 11 11 8 4 5 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 20 24 13 0 14 25 25 29 28 19 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 25 CX,CY: -23/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 3. 1. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)