* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 31 30 31 32 37 42 48 55 60 61 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 31 30 30 31 36 40 46 44 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 30 29 29 27 27 29 34 35 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 30 27 28 33 23 24 8 11 5 6 10 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 1 1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 277 272 276 256 266 278 294 329 269 211 313 5 348 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 148 150 146 146 137 124 119 117 115 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 148 143 146 146 137 133 121 108 102 100 97 97 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 59 59 63 64 67 66 67 57 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 6 -8 -20 -46 -60 -30 -13 -14 -44 -26 -24 200 MB DIV 26 30 64 66 66 61 29 49 20 3 -35 -22 -15 700-850 TADV 7 17 4 -2 -6 -4 4 8 0 1 -2 0 -8 LAND (KM) 234 126 50 17 11 10 162 110 71 44 -14 -56 -109 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.7 21.7 23.7 25.7 27.4 28.7 29.5 30.5 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.5 72.5 73.9 75.3 77.2 78.4 79.1 79.5 80.2 81.3 82.0 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 25 21 19 17 15 12 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 25 32 30 7 34 26 24 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 28 CX,CY: -26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 876 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -3. 2. 8. 15. 20. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)