* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 33 33 35 37 44 48 54 59 63 61 V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 33 33 30 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 32 31 27 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 31 31 36 29 17 13 2 1 3 9 13 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -5 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 284 283 272 282 290 277 334 4 99 249 354 13 39 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 148 151 155 153 150 139 125 118 114 112 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 143 149 151 152 142 135 123 109 102 97 93 92 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 9 7 11 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 59 62 64 63 69 69 66 57 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 0 -12 -24 -29 -57 -9 -6 -7 -58 -59 -55 200 MB DIV 6 37 53 48 45 21 23 42 8 -16 -28 -34 -7 700-850 TADV 5 7 0 -5 -3 0 1 2 2 2 2 -11 -4 LAND (KM) 111 75 21 77 45 -52 90 -34 -44 -27 -56 -139 -178 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 22.3 24.5 26.3 28.0 29.7 31.5 32.2 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 73.0 74.7 76.4 78.0 80.0 80.2 80.5 81.0 81.5 81.9 82.5 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 18 18 18 16 12 10 9 9 9 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 39 49 54 100 22 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 28 CX,CY: -26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 880 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)