* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 47 51 56 60 62 64 62 58 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 44 42 46 52 55 57 51 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 39 40 44 49 54 52 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 32 30 20 21 14 9 7 20 18 31 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -6 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 285 283 284 291 286 290 12 349 285 312 350 360 42 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.4 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.4 25.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 148 152 155 151 143 124 120 123 119 106 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 149 150 141 131 111 105 107 102 92 83 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 60 64 66 67 67 62 51 48 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 8 -21 -25 -59 -52 -20 -10 -34 -9 -38 -68 200 MB DIV 32 63 49 37 40 25 53 23 1 -23 4 -22 -14 700-850 TADV 7 4 -2 0 0 -1 0 -5 4 3 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 179 105 14 66 65 20 75 104 206 91 -14 86 229 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.2 20.3 22.9 25.3 27.8 30.4 32.8 34.9 36.8 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.6 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.7 79.6 79.3 79.2 78.5 76.9 74.9 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 37 29 55 51 6 25 24 27 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 22. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)