* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 44 46 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 44 32 35 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 29 34 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 18 18 20 19 11 16 10 14 18 17 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -2 -4 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 301 290 305 340 354 29 357 5 334 353 341 353 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.7 27.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 144 143 143 134 125 120 120 120 132 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 130 130 128 127 117 107 102 103 103 113 123 124 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -55.1 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 65 64 69 66 61 57 59 57 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -62 -62 -81 -81 -35 -32 -23 -31 -14 -30 -25 -44 200 MB DIV 53 64 32 31 33 38 34 13 -8 0 1 15 -5 700-850 TADV 6 18 8 5 4 6 0 -1 -2 -7 1 -7 1 LAND (KM) 12 67 109 159 221 159 129 103 6 -62 63 36 79 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.8 27.1 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.8 77.5 78.0 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.4 80.6 82.1 84.0 85.7 87.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 7 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 39 37 8 27 26 20 3 0 19 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 17 CX,CY: -10/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 24. 27. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/11/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)