* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 50 51 52 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 50 34 29 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 29 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 22 15 16 16 17 11 7 4 16 10 11 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 3 4 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 299 287 320 1 28 26 107 103 121 107 98 82 103 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.2 25.4 22.5 19.0 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 146 142 126 119 116 117 110 90 76 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 133 130 125 110 104 101 102 96 80 70 66 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -53.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 6 9 5 10 700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 65 68 67 68 57 55 50 50 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -55 -57 -62 -36 -32 -18 -45 -42 -78 -86 -137 -142 200 MB DIV 63 21 29 46 57 23 21 -18 -6 -13 -15 -10 -22 700-850 TADV 15 14 8 9 11 13 7 -2 8 0 9 4 0 LAND (KM) 35 103 148 97 35 30 70 22 -213 -428 -600 -806 -999 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.3 29.1 30.7 32.5 34.3 36.1 37.8 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.7 79.3 79.6 79.9 79.9 80.2 81.2 83.2 85.5 88.0 89.8 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 9 9 9 11 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 39 36 27 25 14 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 19 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 876 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/11/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)