* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 62 65 66 66 68 68 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 62 65 66 66 68 68 67 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 57 62 66 71 72 73 75 78 81 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 2 1 1 4 8 11 12 12 12 10 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 37 50 157 306 253 236 269 259 276 239 259 231 257 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 111 110 112 115 121 129 132 138 138 138 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 117 110 109 110 113 120 128 131 135 133 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 71 75 73 70 63 55 50 46 42 42 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 29 23 22 19 8 7 -4 -4 -13 -21 -26 200 MB DIV 0 21 28 13 20 36 0 -3 6 13 17 21 -4 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -4 -1 6 10 5 3 -1 -8 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1240 1430 1621 1809 1996 1881 1693 1535 1367 1119 817 537 331 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.8 32.6 34.4 36.1 39.4 43.0 46.9 51.0 54.8 58.0 60.8 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 19 19 17 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 5 24 20 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)