* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 63 68 68 71 72 73 71 71 70 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 63 68 68 71 72 73 71 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 59 62 68 70 71 72 73 74 75 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 2 3 7 6 12 12 16 15 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 3 5 10 1 3 2 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 64 121 91 203 158 224 209 204 222 223 215 214 220 SST (C) 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 110 111 113 117 124 131 136 139 138 138 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 110 109 109 112 116 123 131 135 135 132 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 69 65 56 50 46 42 47 45 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 16 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 32 31 30 37 27 33 21 31 10 21 17 200 MB DIV 30 48 48 62 59 21 21 20 0 33 11 50 16 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 3 6 10 8 -3 -10 -9 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1409 1589 1771 1964 1997 1774 1600 1468 1213 981 684 403 201 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 32.3 34.0 35.8 37.6 41.3 44.9 48.8 52.9 56.4 59.3 62.2 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 7 28 19 29 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 23. 26. 27. 28. 26. 26. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/24/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)