* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 61 61 62 63 64 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 61 61 62 63 64 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 59 63 65 66 67 69 71 72 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 1 5 8 8 13 12 12 19 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 6 7 7 3 1 4 2 2 5 4 SHEAR DIR 178 318 267 138 214 249 206 243 210 219 219 228 222 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 111 113 114 121 127 130 135 139 138 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 109 110 112 119 125 127 132 137 132 125 121 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 65 61 53 49 44 43 45 46 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 26 21 20 24 24 16 17 8 3 6 19 200 MB DIV 37 40 42 50 62 24 15 4 11 11 43 16 22 700-850 TADV -5 0 2 3 7 12 10 7 -5 -6 -3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1600 1787 1975 2004 1905 1708 1555 1435 1200 902 550 323 202 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 34.2 35.9 37.6 39.3 42.9 46.7 50.2 53.6 57.2 60.7 63.2 64.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 16 17 17 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 13 21 22 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)