* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062013 07/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 52 53 52 47 41 36 33 29 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 52 53 52 47 41 36 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 40 39 36 32 28 25 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 2 3 1 7 6 8 8 11 11 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 51 359 299 316 179 252 239 239 257 266 266 263 285 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.0 24.7 24.2 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 141 137 133 125 112 106 106 103 103 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 68 70 67 65 62 62 62 69 68 68 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 32 32 37 38 24 6 -9 -19 -28 -26 -34 200 MB DIV 71 70 56 65 89 81 56 42 27 9 34 -4 0 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 -6 -3 -2 -4 6 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1445 1521 1609 1707 1782 1949 2169 1927 1674 1436 1187 951 720 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 23. 22. 17. 11. 6. 3. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 SIX 07/25/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)