* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 53 52 51 51 55 54 55 54 53 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 53 52 51 51 55 54 55 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 56 59 62 64 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 8 8 7 12 9 15 15 14 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 5 6 6 1 4 0 4 4 7 3 SHEAR DIR 246 252 187 214 215 228 244 204 233 208 211 209 233 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 112 113 116 123 128 133 138 138 136 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 109 111 113 121 127 131 135 133 128 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 64 61 61 55 51 48 45 47 45 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 18 16 15 14 13 16 14 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 10 16 19 15 19 13 7 -1 -3 -4 7 200 MB DIV 21 38 50 51 38 -1 3 31 18 46 6 47 11 700-850 TADV 2 5 3 10 16 23 18 5 -5 -4 -2 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1739 1911 2068 1961 1867 1681 1553 1337 1089 753 502 317 233 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.3 36.9 38.6 40.3 44.0 47.8 51.7 55.4 58.7 61.4 63.9 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 18 17 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 15 5 26 15 20 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)