* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 55 53 51 45 38 30 24 19 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 55 53 51 45 38 30 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 41 39 35 31 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 3 7 10 12 14 15 17 17 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 4 1 3 -1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 315 276 271 203 246 216 242 220 255 256 277 288 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.4 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.4 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 135 131 119 107 109 107 104 107 110 112 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 68 65 63 58 60 61 60 61 61 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 15 17 16 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 35 48 59 43 24 3 -10 -32 -23 -36 -18 200 MB DIV 62 50 76 84 95 65 51 30 48 -2 9 -14 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 -4 -4 -1 -11 0 1 -3 1 1 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1552 1647 1751 1840 1934 2124 2029 1740 1465 1235 1026 820 617 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.7 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.2 20.1 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.7 126.1 127.8 129.4 132.6 135.5 138.2 140.8 143.0 145.0 147.0 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 18. 16. 10. 3. -5. -11. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)