* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 50 49 52 52 57 58 60 59 56 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 50 49 52 52 57 58 60 59 56 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 52 53 54 56 60 64 68 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 5 8 11 9 9 9 12 15 16 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 3 4 3 0 2 0 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 258 226 213 229 240 230 256 204 235 207 215 220 232 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 114 117 120 127 130 135 139 137 135 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 109 111 115 119 126 128 133 135 131 127 124 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 58 56 51 47 43 43 43 43 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 17 18 15 17 15 17 16 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 21 25 26 20 16 1 3 -15 -14 -14 -22 200 MB DIV 35 44 47 14 0 -1 5 4 27 32 16 24 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 10 14 23 15 9 3 -5 -4 -1 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1900 2058 1949 1846 1757 1578 1449 1199 925 600 343 257 294 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.9 38.5 40.4 42.2 46.2 49.9 53.5 57.0 60.3 63.2 65.7 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 19 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 7 4 7 12 20 17 21 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -3. -6. -4. -6. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 10. 9. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED