* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 50 46 43 38 31 26 20 16 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 50 46 43 38 31 26 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 40 40 37 34 31 28 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 7 10 6 13 8 13 13 17 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -2 1 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 293 297 291 247 244 234 254 247 242 249 279 297 294 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.4 24.8 24.9 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 135 131 119 113 114 108 108 111 114 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 66 65 66 67 67 60 57 53 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 33 38 38 37 8 3 -7 -21 -34 -41 -41 200 MB DIV 60 82 101 126 78 54 45 35 14 11 -6 -23 -16 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 -5 -5 -1 0 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1701 1812 1908 2000 2101 2187 1885 1557 1256 995 796 538 256 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.2 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.0 19.9 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.5 127.9 129.6 131.2 134.2 137.0 140.0 142.8 145.3 147.2 149.7 152.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 15 16 16 14 14 14 13 10 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 3 21 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 11. 8. 3. -4. -9. -15. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##