* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 50 49 50 51 53 52 52 47 44 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 50 49 50 51 53 52 52 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 51 52 52 52 53 55 57 58 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 8 15 13 11 8 17 17 19 28 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 3 3 4 3 0 3 3 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 292 253 243 233 231 243 236 240 234 242 228 232 226 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 117 120 124 128 132 136 137 135 133 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 115 118 122 127 129 132 132 128 124 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 54 53 49 46 45 45 46 47 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 16 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 19 19 17 12 -3 -7 -14 -25 -32 -34 -25 200 MB DIV 32 30 17 6 29 1 -2 9 32 4 20 13 50 700-850 TADV -5 10 17 25 24 12 3 -6 -2 -1 -4 -8 -10 LAND (KM) 2075 1969 1879 1777 1685 1555 1358 1094 754 481 343 344 269 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.8 40.5 42.5 44.4 48.2 51.9 55.4 58.8 61.8 64.4 66.7 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 4 18 6 24 12 20 16 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. -3. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)