* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 47 45 41 35 29 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 47 45 41 35 29 24 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 35 32 29 27 25 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 9 9 10 13 12 11 13 14 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -2 1 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 283 237 249 250 228 226 209 244 250 277 276 269 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 132 128 115 114 112 110 112 114 118 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 66 68 70 68 64 58 53 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 32 41 35 31 19 2 -1 -16 -23 -39 -31 -39 200 MB DIV 78 99 115 88 53 90 39 38 8 4 6 7 6 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -3 -2 -4 0 6 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1835 1930 2027 2116 2212 2049 1702 1379 1091 827 578 279 14 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 128.2 129.7 131.2 132.7 135.5 138.7 141.7 144.4 146.9 149.3 152.3 155.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 15 15 14 13 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 26 15 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. 0. -6. -11. -14. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##