* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 50 51 51 53 54 55 54 52 48 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 50 51 51 53 54 55 54 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 58 60 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 10 10 15 15 16 16 18 29 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 6 5 0 1 0 0 1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 256 235 242 236 231 254 233 245 242 223 222 235 227 SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 120 124 128 132 137 139 137 135 133 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 119 124 128 131 135 136 131 125 123 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 50 48 44 42 44 42 44 45 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 15 13 13 13 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 27 24 20 6 -7 -14 -33 -29 -22 -22 -19 200 MB DIV 41 35 34 34 2 -16 -27 16 20 9 14 6 1 700-850 TADV 8 19 25 18 11 5 -2 -4 -8 -4 -10 -8 -15 LAND (KM) 1941 1836 1742 1632 1549 1409 1160 832 503 296 244 212 211 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.5 42.3 44.4 46.4 50.5 54.3 57.9 61.3 64.1 66.1 68.5 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 19 18 17 15 11 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 8 4 5 6 20 17 22 17 14 25 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)