* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 58 59 57 52 45 40 36 34 30 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 58 59 57 52 45 40 36 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 52 53 51 48 44 41 38 35 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 3 3 3 4 7 10 10 9 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 5 4 0 -2 -2 0 4 9 6 SHEAR DIR 81 5 202 133 209 237 188 264 272 288 307 290 275 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.3 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 129 122 118 117 116 117 120 122 127 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 67 65 63 58 53 50 47 45 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 21 22 22 21 19 17 16 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 35 42 42 27 25 7 -9 -16 -11 -12 -18 200 MB DIV 100 98 94 99 125 16 11 -13 -20 -2 -3 14 2 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 2081 2191 2308 2154 1970 1604 1257 935 652 371 108 161 332 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.8 131.5 133.1 134.8 136.5 139.9 143.1 146.1 148.8 151.5 154.4 157.4 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 1 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 7. 0. -5. -9. -11. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##