* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 43 45 46 47 47 48 51 50 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 43 45 46 47 47 48 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 43 43 42 43 44 46 48 50 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 15 16 17 20 16 16 20 17 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 3 1 1 0 6 1 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 243 231 235 248 254 244 266 227 234 234 264 241 273 SST (C) 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 124 127 130 131 136 138 137 135 134 133 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 123 127 128 129 135 134 130 127 126 124 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 48 46 44 47 46 47 46 47 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 11 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 17 3 0 -16 -23 -30 -33 -33 -38 -21 -37 200 MB DIV 24 49 0 0 -4 -10 16 33 2 -13 4 -3 7 700-850 TADV 35 28 15 8 6 -1 -4 -1 -4 -8 -1 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 1777 1680 1609 1549 1453 1195 809 488 263 222 144 188 186 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 44.4 46.4 48.4 50.3 54.3 58.2 61.5 64.2 67.0 69.8 72.0 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 14 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 4 15 10 22 16 22 19 17 36 31 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED