* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 50 48 43 36 30 24 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 50 48 43 36 30 24 18 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 47 46 42 39 36 34 32 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 4 10 9 13 11 19 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 7 3 0 -3 -5 -1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 275 259 214 212 228 226 232 246 255 262 261 267 255 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.2 25.0 25.1 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.6 26.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 125 118 115 116 112 115 117 119 120 128 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 62 58 52 47 44 41 45 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 20 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 31 36 32 21 17 -5 -15 -34 -43 -57 -53 200 MB DIV 80 73 79 100 50 6 -20 -6 -17 -2 -2 17 -16 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -3 0 4 2 6 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2146 2258 2160 1970 1779 1421 1096 779 475 212 -7 166 250 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.6 19.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 133.0 134.6 136.4 138.1 141.4 144.4 147.4 150.3 152.8 155.0 157.8 161.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -15. -21. -26. -29. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##