* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 44 47 51 53 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 44 47 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 36 36 36 37 38 40 42 45 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 12 19 14 18 18 22 16 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 232 242 258 262 248 245 249 226 230 241 273 283 318 SST (C) 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 130 132 134 140 139 137 135 134 138 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 127 129 130 133 139 136 130 127 128 131 131 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 44 42 43 43 44 43 45 44 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 4 0 -7 -19 -26 -37 -37 -27 -23 -32 -46 200 MB DIV 41 14 -1 0 -5 9 21 7 12 -1 -1 -17 6 700-850 TADV 28 12 2 2 3 -1 -4 -1 -8 -7 -9 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1634 1560 1499 1396 1259 962 578 291 166 98 80 53 48 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 46.8 48.8 50.7 52.6 56.6 60.4 63.5 66.0 68.8 71.9 74.4 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 19 17 13 12 14 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 6 11 8 9 26 23 24 16 29 28 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)