* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 52 48 43 36 31 25 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 52 48 43 36 31 25 23 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 50 48 43 40 37 36 34 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 9 9 11 9 11 13 15 20 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 8 3 1 0 -4 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 265 239 214 219 237 214 241 233 255 268 271 281 283 SST (C) 26.4 25.6 25.0 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 121 115 114 116 112 112 116 118 120 124 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 58 52 48 42 42 44 50 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 21 20 20 17 14 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 29 26 24 22 10 -12 -26 -42 -65 -81 -77 200 MB DIV 77 73 92 40 12 5 -4 -23 -6 -9 -2 -8 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2277 2124 1948 1764 1580 1232 912 597 293 33 66 189 328 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.9 136.5 138.2 139.9 143.1 146.1 149.1 152.0 154.5 156.7 159.5 162.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 15 14 14 13 11 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -14. -19. -25. -30. -33. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##