* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 31 31 35 38 43 47 52 60 66 72 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 31 31 35 38 43 47 52 46 47 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 29 29 30 32 35 39 44 41 43 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 11 13 13 10 15 7 15 13 20 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 270 278 271 253 261 227 251 262 316 323 345 351 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 136 138 141 139 136 136 141 147 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 133 135 138 140 135 130 131 138 143 146 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 44 41 44 42 44 45 44 42 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 -4 -11 -16 -22 -33 -38 -23 -21 -21 -40 -28 200 MB DIV -1 -7 -7 -10 -6 18 30 -5 -7 1 -4 15 -9 700-850 TADV 14 6 6 4 2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1536 1472 1352 1205 1080 721 352 145 78 31 -60 68 90 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 49.1 51.1 53.1 55.0 58.9 62.6 65.8 68.8 72.3 76.3 79.7 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 18 16 15 16 17 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 8 10 24 21 31 17 28 29 64 42 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 3. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)