* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 52 49 43 37 30 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 52 49 43 37 30 26 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 50 48 44 41 39 37 35 33 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 9 11 15 12 16 20 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 1 0 -1 -2 3 8 4 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 246 226 219 231 208 241 234 262 299 282 284 291 296 SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 115 114 115 114 112 114 118 120 125 132 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 59 57 53 46 43 41 41 41 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 15 13 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 13 12 8 9 -13 -15 -21 -19 -42 -52 -66 200 MB DIV 75 69 34 2 3 -14 -6 -37 -27 -5 -6 -15 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -4 -3 0 -2 1 0 -4 -2 -5 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2122 1942 1763 1583 1404 1072 744 418 94 90 251 394 635 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.6 138.2 139.9 141.5 144.6 147.7 150.8 153.9 156.9 159.8 162.6 165.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 15 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -20. -26. -32. -35. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##