* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 46 49 51 54 59 62 66 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 46 49 51 54 59 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 34 34 36 39 41 43 46 50 57 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 15 16 11 19 19 16 16 20 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 1 0 -5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 262 269 263 250 256 245 238 253 275 324 312 357 345 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 136 139 141 141 137 134 135 137 135 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 137 139 141 141 133 127 125 127 123 121 121 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 39 38 39 41 40 41 42 46 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -11 -17 -21 -31 -48 -51 -53 -45 -51 -54 -67 200 MB DIV -4 -4 -15 -10 6 43 -2 3 -1 -1 -30 2 -25 700-850 TADV 7 6 3 2 -1 -3 -1 -6 -6 -10 -8 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1470 1344 1190 1067 876 471 213 178 144 159 116 105 158 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 51.2 53.3 55.4 57.4 61.4 65.3 68.6 71.1 73.6 75.7 77.4 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 20 19 19 17 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 10 26 38 30 16 36 42 20 22 38 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 24. 27. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)