* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 56 51 44 38 32 26 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 56 51 44 38 30 27 20 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 53 51 46 42 40 34 35 33 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 5 9 7 15 14 11 19 19 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 1 2 0 1 2 7 8 5 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 255 259 268 230 227 258 246 291 282 261 270 277 275 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 114 112 112 116 119 122 129 134 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 59 56 50 44 42 39 37 38 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 19 17 16 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 3 1 -3 2 -6 -17 -26 -23 -25 -46 -47 -60 200 MB DIV 65 28 8 -5 -8 -13 -24 -21 -17 13 -11 -13 -23 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -5 -2 0 -5 0 -3 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1926 1750 1576 1403 1231 902 576 253 -42 171 273 512 764 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.7 138.3 139.9 141.5 143.1 146.2 149.3 152.4 155.5 158.6 161.5 164.4 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -29. -36. -40. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##