* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 58 55 49 42 37 30 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 58 55 49 42 37 31 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 61 58 55 49 44 41 38 35 33 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 6 9 10 8 15 9 13 18 20 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 6 3 5 6 7 9 7 8 4 1 SHEAR DIR 270 271 234 233 258 244 265 290 275 272 280 276 278 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.6 24.9 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 114 111 111 114 118 120 125 133 136 136 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 56 53 47 45 42 42 41 42 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 17 14 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -7 1 -6 -19 -23 -35 -32 -41 -46 -60 -53 200 MB DIV 24 10 7 6 -11 -15 -22 -8 3 -4 -12 -17 -35 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -3 -1 -4 -2 -5 -8 -6 -8 -10 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 1740 1555 1371 1199 1028 712 398 104 84 195 423 726 1029 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.6 20.8 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.4 140.1 141.8 143.4 145.0 148.0 151.0 153.9 156.9 160.2 163.6 166.7 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 8 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -18. -23. -30. -35. -41. -45. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##