* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 46 48 51 54 58 62 66 69 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 46 48 51 54 58 43 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 41 42 44 46 51 41 49 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 16 12 11 18 18 15 15 14 20 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 2 0 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 251 244 258 251 226 230 251 273 341 337 29 18 19 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 140 140 140 135 135 138 139 144 146 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 139 139 138 130 129 132 133 134 134 135 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 39 37 38 39 40 41 41 41 42 45 47 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -24 -28 -35 -49 -52 -57 -52 -49 -41 -43 -48 200 MB DIV -12 1 13 35 47 18 -7 -10 -5 -10 -19 -8 -7 700-850 TADV 9 4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 -8 -4 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1184 1060 847 645 456 230 188 167 86 3 -8 106 246 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 55.7 57.7 59.7 61.7 65.4 68.6 72.0 75.6 78.7 81.2 83.4 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 19 19 16 16 16 16 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 26 35 31 26 17 39 42 24 74 31 55 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED